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galleon
Michael Peterson status
Reged: 05/30/04
Posts: 2323
Loc: Austin, TX
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Re: El Niņo
07/13/09 05:58 PM
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Apparently people feel the need to put words in my mouth regarding my first post, so I need to clarify.
Quote:
A major El Niņo event starting this winter would likely make 2010 far and away the warmest year on record globally.
This is a factual statement.
Quote:
It will be interesting to hear what the dumb skeptics who claim temperatures have been stable since 1998 (the last major El Niņo) will have to say if this happens. No, scratch that, not interesting, but maybe entertaining.
It is a popular and misleading skeptic argument to claim that global and/or tropical temperatures have been stable since 1998. There is a signal within the warming trend signal called interannual variability, or year to year variability that arises from dynamics internal to the climate system. El Niņo/La Niņa is the largest and strongest mode of interannual variability on Earth, so that hot spike of 1998 is because of this interannual variability manifesting itself as a warm event, it has nothing to do with the background warming trend. A forthcoming El Niņo will make this an argument that skeptics can no longer get away with.
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We've started a betting pool in our research group as to whether there will or will not be a major event this winter.
Unrelated to my comments above.
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