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mayor1
Gerry Lopez status
Reged: 08/14/05
Posts: 1268
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Re: El Niņo
09/10/09 08:01 PM
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Galleon- what do you make of this latest assesment? I guess its fairly self explanatory, but it doesn't seem like this el nino will be all that robust. Whats your take?
EL NIŅO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 September 2009
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niņo Advisory
Synopsis: El Niņo is expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter
2009-2010.
A weak El Niņo continued during August 2009, as sea surface temperature (SST) remained
above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Consistent with this warmth, the latest weekly
values of the Niņo-region SST indices were between +0.7°C to +1.0°C (Fig. 2). Subsurface oceanic heat
content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) anomalies continued to reflect a
deep layer of anomalous warmth between the ocean surface and the thermocline, particularly in the
central Pacific (Fig. 4). Enhanced convection over the western and central Pacific abated during the
month, but the pattern of suppressed convection strengthened over Indonesia. Low-level westerly wind
anomalies continued to become better established over parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. These
oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect an ongoing weak El Niņo.
A majority of the model forecasts for the Niņo-3.4 SST index (Fig. 5) suggest El Niņo will reach
at least moderate strength during the Northern Hemisphere fall (3-month Niņo-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C
or greater). Many model forecasts even suggest a strong El Niņo (3-month Niņo-3.4 SST index in excess
of +1.5°C) during the fall and winter, but current observations and trends indicate that El Niņo will most
likely peak at moderate strength. Therefore, current conditions, trends, and model forecasts favor the
continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niņo into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2009,
with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niņo during the winter 2009-10.
Expected El Niņo impacts during September-November 2009 include enhanced precipitation over
the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean and the continuation of drier-than-average conditions over
Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the
Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, generally strengthening during the late fall and winter. El
Niņo can help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing the vertical wind shear over the
Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the Aug. 6th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal
Hurricane Outlook ).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), NOAAs National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niņo/La Niņa Current
Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niņo/La Niņa are updated
monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO
Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 8 October 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the
monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.ensoupdate@
noaa.gov.
Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304
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